Norms, Surprises, and Causes
Chapter summary from Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman.
You navigate the world by noticing what breaks a pattern. Norms fade into the background; surprises demand explanation.
When an event violates expectation, the fast system searches for a cause. It prefers intentional stories, coherent narratives, and agents with motives.
This instinct is powerful, but it misleads. Randomness rarely feels satisfying, so you over-attribute outcomes to character, skill, or hidden plans. Luck gets edited out because it makes a poor plot.
Hindsight adds pressure. Once you know an outcome, you can build a story that makes it seem inevitable, even if it was not.
The slow system can insist on uncertainty, but it must resist the comfort of explanation. Without that resistance, you mistake plausibility for proof.
Noticing how fast you move from surprise to cause is the start of better judgment.
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