Causes Trump Statistics
Chapter summary from Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman.
Your mind is built to see causes. When you encounter a pattern, you immediately ask what produced it, who intended it, and why it happened.
Statistics feel thin by comparison. A causal story satisfies, so you accept it even when the data are weak. Inference becomes narrative.
This preference pushes you toward certainty: if you can name a cause, the outcome feels less random. It also pushes you toward error: you underweight sample size, noise, and regression.
The slow system can think statistically, but it must work against the urge for explanation. The most dangerous moment is when a story sounds “deep” but rests on fragile evidence.
Treat causal accounts as hypotheses, not conclusions. When numbers conflict with narrative, do not assume the numbers are the problem.
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