Intuitions Vs. Formulas
Chapter summary from Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman.
Human judgment feels flexible and rich, but it is also inconsistent. The same expert can give different answers to the same case depending on mood, timing, or what was just seen.
Simple formulas are dull, yet they are stable. When a prediction problem is regular enough, a rule-based approach can outperform intuitive judgment by avoiding noise.
The resistance is emotional: trusting a formula feels like surrendering wisdom. It also threatens status, because it implies that expertise can be partially captured.
The slow system can accept the logic, but the fast system dislikes being replaced. It wants the romance of insight.
Where stakes are high, the question is practical: do you want a flattering process, or do you want fewer errors? Consistency is often the hidden advantage.
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