Numbers you encounter—even irrelevant ones—can become anchors. Once an anchor is present, your estimates drift toward it, as if the mind needs a starting point.
Anchoring is not just a trick of arithmetic. It changes what feels reasonable. A high starting value makes high outcomes seem plausible; a low one makes the same outcomes feel excessive.
The fast system generates an answer by adjusting from the anchor, but the adjustment is typically insufficient. The slow system can adjust further, yet it often stops early.
Anchors show up in negotiation, pricing, forecasts, and self-evaluation. The first number spoken can quietly define the range of “normal.”
If you want protection, slow down and ask: “What would I think if I had never seen that number?” Then rebuild the estimate from independent evidence.
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